Mapping and Analyzing 16 Years of Data on Top HS Basketball Recruits

For this post, I analyzed ESPN100 men’s HS basketball prospect ratings from 2007 to 2022. For a given year, the dataset looks something like this:

For this analysis, I cleaned the dataset and used API Ninja to Geocode hometown information. I ended up analyzing:
– Basic player information like name, height, and weight
– Top high schools for producing ESPN100 players and the colleges players most frequently attend
– Maps of where ESPN100 players come from each year and over time
– Maps of where particular colleges’ ESPN100 players come from
– An analysis of ESPN100 players forgoing college basketball

Notes and some additional information on processing are including at the bottom of the post. In general, I did not edit the dataset and primarily filled in gaps where they existed. The original dataset was accessed manually through the ESPN100 website.

Basic Prospect Data (Names, Height, Weight)

Names

The most common name for ESPN100 recruits from 2007 to 2022 is either Jordan or Jalen, with 21 recruits each having those names. The other names are:

1. Jordan – 21 recruits
2. Jalen – 21 recruits
3. Brandon – 19 recruits
4. Isaiah – 16 recruits
5. Josh – 15 recruits
6. Chris – 15 recruits
7. Anthony – 14 recruits
8. Justin – 14 recruits
9. Tyler – 14 recruits
10. James – 13 recruits

Height

The tallest player in the dataset is Mamadou Ndiaye, who is listed at 7’5″. Ndiaye was the #74 ranked player in 2013 and went on to play basketball at UC Irvine.

The shortest player in the dataset is Erving Walker, who is listed at 5’6″. Walker was the #75 ranked player in 2008 and went on to play basketball at Florida.

View the full distribution below:

Weight

The heaviest player in the dataset is Sim Bhullar, who is listed at 7’4″ and 330 lbs. Bhullar was the #82 ranked player in 2011 and went on to play basketball at New Mexico State before becoming the first player of Indian descent to play in the NBA.

There are 8 different players tied for the lightest player in the dataset at 150 pounds.

View the full distribution below:

Top High Schools and Colleges

The graphic below shows the high schools or prep schools that had the most ESPN100 prospects.

In terms of colleges signing the highest number of ESPN100 recruits, Kentucky and Duke are a clear tier above the rest.

Recruits by Hometown Every Year and in Total

The two graphics depict where ESPN100 recruits came from in a given year. Some possible trends include a lot fewer players from the Bay Area over time and more players from the Twin Cities and Seattle.

Where Colleges Get Their Recruits

The following section shows maps for the 76 schools that signed more than 5 ESPN100 recruits from 2007 to 2022. The slideshow is loaded in descending order, with schools with more numbers of recruits at the beginning. For each school, the map plots the hometown of every recruit they signed, with a catchall “Overseas” category.

In many cases, one could come pretty close to guessing the school just by the location of its top recruits.

Players Forgoing College Basketball

During this time period, players were not allowed to enter the NBA directly out of high school. Nonetheless, 26 players on the list did not end up signing with a college to play basketball. The number of such players peaked at 8 in 2020, which coincided with the inaugural season of the NBA G League Ignite.

Notable prospects to forgo college basketball (2007 – 2002):

• Jaden Hardy: #2 in ’21
• Jalen Green: #1 in ’20
• Jonathan Kuminga: #4 in ’20
• LaMelo Ball: #21 in ’19
• Anfernee Simons: #9 in ’18
• Mitchell Robinson: #11 in ’17
• Emmanuel Mudiay: #5 in ’14
• Brandon Jennings: #1 in ’08
• Terrelle Pryor: #39 in ’08

Note: Terrelle Pryor appears to be the only player from 07-22 to forgo basketball entirely. He went on to play football at Ohio State

Data Processing and Cleaning

For each class year, the ESPN100 data provides the following fields
– Rank
– Player Name
– Position
– Hometown (including High School name and City / State)²
– Height
– Weight
– Stars
– Grade (0 to 100 recruit grade determined by ESPN)
– College (School where they signed or committed)

A few notes about the dataset:
– For the “Hometown” field, the City / State information is not always the City / State of the High School, and appears to be the actual City / State where the player is from. At least for this analysis, I am more interested in a player’s hometown and not the location of the school where they played their basketball season. See (appendix) for more details.
– The dataset includes international recruits.
– In the original ESPN100 dataset, not every player has complete “College” data. In most cases the name of the college where they signed a letter of intent is listed, but in some cases, the field just lists where a player committed to play or simply provides a list of school
– In certain cases, a single college or destination is not provided, in those instances I looked into the player’s career and generally marked where they played next played basketball.

Notes

¹ For whatever reason, ESPN100 does not always list exactly 100 recruits, and in some years, fewer recruits are listed.

² Many elite HS basketball recruits attend high schools or prep schools to play basketball. In general, it seems like the ESPN100 list provides the name of the high school or prep school but the city and state of the player’s hometown, and not the location of the school. For example, Brandon Jennings is listed as “Los Angeles, CA Oak Hill Academy” in the dataset, even though Oak Hill Academy is in Mouth of Wilson, VA. I deferred to ESPN and did not significantly edit these values.